Message 56
Entered a trade shorting E/U
Trade 32
EUR / USD - Short - 42k units @ 1.4603 - 70pip SL - 2.5% capital at risk
Tuesday, 15 September 2009
Messge 55
A few charts to show what set ups I'm looking at...
AUS / USD - a nice consolidation zone to trade within, I'd prefer a long from the blue support line.
EUR / GBP - trend is down on the daily and on the 3H you can see price is in consolidation mode, hence was looking for a sell, but GBP strengthened overnight.
EUR / USD - Notice how price hasn't closed above the fib resistance line and is being held by the trendline. Looking for a short depending on reaction at London open and also weary of potential volatility due to news events today.
A few charts to show what set ups I'm looking at...
AUS / USD - a nice consolidation zone to trade within, I'd prefer a long from the blue support line.
EUR / GBP - trend is down on the daily and on the 3H you can see price is in consolidation mode, hence was looking for a sell, but GBP strengthened overnight.
EUR / USD - Notice how price hasn't closed above the fib resistance line and is being held by the trendline. Looking for a short depending on reaction at London open and also weary of potential volatility due to news events today.
Message 54
Missed on on EUR / GBP short as price has since retraced on positive GBP House Price Data, though it is mainly due to the low supply in my opinion, so bit of a distorted view.
Still thinking about a EUR / USD short...waiting to see what London does to the price. The Euro did close at a new high, but is lacking upside momentum.
There is plenty of event risk today, the main economic news being:
9.30 - GBP CPI
9.45 - GBP inflation report
10.00 - German ZEW economic sentiment
1.30 - USD Retail Sales & PPI
3.00 - FED Chairman Bernanke speaks
The USD / JPY and CHF / JPY trades I exited Monday are now in profit with the CHF trade in particular playing out exactly how I planned it...why oh why did I exit...because of the losses last week I wanted to exit EUR / USD for a profit and cut the losses on the other two to ensure I started the week in a good fashion. The power of emotions and the psychology of trading is something that in my opinion is the biggest hurdle / barrier to success!
Never mind, you can't let regrettable decisions affect your future trading, one of the most common thing newbies do when they have some losses is go chasing after trades to try and make those losses back and thus they take trades they shouldn't and sometimes money management will go out of the window too.
Missed on on EUR / GBP short as price has since retraced on positive GBP House Price Data, though it is mainly due to the low supply in my opinion, so bit of a distorted view.
Still thinking about a EUR / USD short...waiting to see what London does to the price. The Euro did close at a new high, but is lacking upside momentum.
There is plenty of event risk today, the main economic news being:
9.30 - GBP CPI
9.45 - GBP inflation report
10.00 - German ZEW economic sentiment
1.30 - USD Retail Sales & PPI
3.00 - FED Chairman Bernanke speaks
The USD / JPY and CHF / JPY trades I exited Monday are now in profit with the CHF trade in particular playing out exactly how I planned it...why oh why did I exit...because of the losses last week I wanted to exit EUR / USD for a profit and cut the losses on the other two to ensure I started the week in a good fashion. The power of emotions and the psychology of trading is something that in my opinion is the biggest hurdle / barrier to success!
Never mind, you can't let regrettable decisions affect your future trading, one of the most common thing newbies do when they have some losses is go chasing after trades to try and make those losses back and thus they take trades they shouldn't and sometimes money management will go out of the window too.
Monday, 14 September 2009
Message 53
Looking to go short EUR / USD and EUR / GBP at the current levels. The former is near trendline resistance and is struggling to push up and the latter is at range resistance.
However, I'm not entering trades overnnight and anyway price normally does not move much with these pairs during Asia. Also, there is plenty of 'event risk' tomorrow so I'm cautious about volatility.
I'll add charts tomorrow if the setup is still applicable.
Looking to go short EUR / USD and EUR / GBP at the current levels. The former is near trendline resistance and is struggling to push up and the latter is at range resistance.
However, I'm not entering trades overnnight and anyway price normally does not move much with these pairs during Asia. Also, there is plenty of 'event risk' tomorrow so I'm cautious about volatility.
I'll add charts tomorrow if the setup is still applicable.
Message 52
Euro rose from the recent support area of 1.4520 to a new high, but importantly the daily close is belo the rsitance area of the 61.8% fib from the daily swing high / low from last year. Am watching closely and may enter a sell.
Other currency pairs I am wathcing together with price alerts I have set are as follows:
AUS / USD - trading in a range on the 3H chart, overall trend is long, so watching price at support area of between 0.840 - 60
NZD / USD - trend is long, looking to see a retracement to 0.6900-40 area.
USD / CAD - Looking for a potential short in the 1.0950 falling trendline area.
EUR / GBP - dowwad trendlin on daily, trading within a range on 3H, looking at a potential short in 0.8230 area.
USD / JPY - would consider a short at a higher price near the previous suppot line of 92.00
I'm watching all these area, but will monitor price action at areas mentioned and only pick A+ trades and not obviously going to expose myself to a high % of USD exposure...
Euro rose from the recent support area of 1.4520 to a new high, but importantly the daily close is belo the rsitance area of the 61.8% fib from the daily swing high / low from last year. Am watching closely and may enter a sell.
Other currency pairs I am wathcing together with price alerts I have set are as follows:
AUS / USD - trading in a range on the 3H chart, overall trend is long, so watching price at support area of between 0.840 - 60
NZD / USD - trend is long, looking to see a retracement to 0.6900-40 area.
USD / CAD - Looking for a potential short in the 1.0950 falling trendline area.
EUR / GBP - dowwad trendlin on daily, trading within a range on 3H, looking at a potential short in 0.8230 area.
USD / JPY - would consider a short at a higher price near the previous suppot line of 92.00
I'm watching all these area, but will monitor price action at areas mentioned and only pick A+ trades and not obviously going to expose myself to a high % of USD exposure...
Message 51
I entered another 2 trades on Friday and one on Sunday night...I exited all three at 2am this morning for a new profit. The USD has started to retrace throughout Asia and although I might have missed a fair few pips on the EUR/USD trade, I'm happy with banking some profit after last week, plus I need some sleep and dont want to wake up and see the price bounce back up again.
The JPY is strengthening so I've exited he CHF trade for the time being but am watching the trendline and the USD trade has a higher risk of a break down than it does of a decent retracement so I'm glad to be out of that trade.
I'm sitting on the sidelines at the moment and am in nor rush to take a trade. I rushed into trades which were too risky last week and am planning to revert back to the more patient style of waiting for the good setups to come my way.
The Euro might break through recent resistance in the low 1.4500's but I'll be a buyer when / if it hits the previous resistance turned support area.
There is potential setups in the CHF/JPY, GBP/USD and NZD/USD which are all near support lines...but I'll be watching for some price action before entering these trades and only if they are A+ setups.
Trade 29
Sep 11 - Long USD/JPY - 15k units @ 90.9150 - 151pip SL - 1.50 capital at risk
Closed @ 90.589 (sep 14th) / -33pips / -£32.50
Trade 30
Sep 11 - Short EUR/USD - 53k units @ 1.4602 - 53 pip SL - 2.50% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4530 (Sep 14th) / +72pips / +£230.43
Trade 31
Sep 13 - Long CHF/JPY - 25k units @ 87.20 - 56pip SL - 1.50% capital at risk
Closed @ 87.00 / -19pips / - £32.10
I entered another 2 trades on Friday and one on Sunday night...I exited all three at 2am this morning for a new profit. The USD has started to retrace throughout Asia and although I might have missed a fair few pips on the EUR/USD trade, I'm happy with banking some profit after last week, plus I need some sleep and dont want to wake up and see the price bounce back up again.
The JPY is strengthening so I've exited he CHF trade for the time being but am watching the trendline and the USD trade has a higher risk of a break down than it does of a decent retracement so I'm glad to be out of that trade.
I'm sitting on the sidelines at the moment and am in nor rush to take a trade. I rushed into trades which were too risky last week and am planning to revert back to the more patient style of waiting for the good setups to come my way.
The Euro might break through recent resistance in the low 1.4500's but I'll be a buyer when / if it hits the previous resistance turned support area.
There is potential setups in the CHF/JPY, GBP/USD and NZD/USD which are all near support lines...but I'll be watching for some price action before entering these trades and only if they are A+ setups.
Trade 29
Sep 11 - Long USD/JPY - 15k units @ 90.9150 - 151pip SL - 1.50 capital at risk
Closed @ 90.589 (sep 14th) / -33pips / -£32.50
Trade 30
Sep 11 - Short EUR/USD - 53k units @ 1.4602 - 53 pip SL - 2.50% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4530 (Sep 14th) / +72pips / +£230.43
Trade 31
Sep 13 - Long CHF/JPY - 25k units @ 87.20 - 56pip SL - 1.50% capital at risk
Closed @ 87.00 / -19pips / - £32.10
Message 50
Apologies, was so busy last week didn't get a chance to update the blog. last week was a very poor trading week, lost most of my trades for various reasons described below. Summary of the trades taken last week as follows:
Trade 21
Closed Sep 8 @ 1.4450 / -100pips / -£286.77
Trade 23
Sep 8 - EUR/USD - Short - 70k units @ 1.4384 - 26pip SL - 1.46% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4410 (Sep 8) / -26pips / -£110.43
This was the aggressive short - it was too aggressive and plain stupid in retrospect. Never average up/down your position.
Trade 24
Sep 8 - EUR/USD - Short - 50k units @ 1.4477 - 48pip SL - 1.95% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4525 (Sep 8) / -48pips / -£145.51
Another short against what turned out to a be a strong bear weakness in the USD all week.
Trade 25
Sep 8 - EUR/USD - Short - 30k units @ 1.4495 - 30pip SL - 0.73% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4525 (Sep 8) / -30pips / -£53.78
Further position added to previous trade - same outcome!
Trade 26
Sep 9 - NZD/USD - Long - 20k units @ 0.6954 - 56 pip SL - 0.92% capital at risk
Closed @ 0.6899 (sep 9) / -56 pips / -£67.08
The lengthening of the spread at rated decision time to stupid levels stopped me out grrr!
Trade 27
Sep 9 - AUS/USD - Long - 20k units @ 0.8619 - 27pip SL - 0.45% capital at risk
Closed @ 0.8592 / -27pips / -£32.40
The NZD interest rate news event also caused a spike in the AUS - I will never enter trades for which the price could move over night due to risk events where I'm not sitting up and watching!
Trade 28
Sep 10 - EUR/USD - Short - 75k units @1.4594 - 31pip SL - 1.51% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4618 (Sep 11) / -24pips / -£108.65
Trying to pick the top and start of a retracement...stop loss too tight.
Apologies, was so busy last week didn't get a chance to update the blog. last week was a very poor trading week, lost most of my trades for various reasons described below. Summary of the trades taken last week as follows:
Trade 21
Closed Sep 8 @ 1.4450 / -100pips / -£286.77
Trade 23
Sep 8 - EUR/USD - Short - 70k units @ 1.4384 - 26pip SL - 1.46% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4410 (Sep 8) / -26pips / -£110.43
This was the aggressive short - it was too aggressive and plain stupid in retrospect. Never average up/down your position.
Trade 24
Sep 8 - EUR/USD - Short - 50k units @ 1.4477 - 48pip SL - 1.95% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4525 (Sep 8) / -48pips / -£145.51
Another short against what turned out to a be a strong bear weakness in the USD all week.
Trade 25
Sep 8 - EUR/USD - Short - 30k units @ 1.4495 - 30pip SL - 0.73% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4525 (Sep 8) / -30pips / -£53.78
Further position added to previous trade - same outcome!
Trade 26
Sep 9 - NZD/USD - Long - 20k units @ 0.6954 - 56 pip SL - 0.92% capital at risk
Closed @ 0.6899 (sep 9) / -56 pips / -£67.08
The lengthening of the spread at rated decision time to stupid levels stopped me out grrr!
Trade 27
Sep 9 - AUS/USD - Long - 20k units @ 0.8619 - 27pip SL - 0.45% capital at risk
Closed @ 0.8592 / -27pips / -£32.40
The NZD interest rate news event also caused a spike in the AUS - I will never enter trades for which the price could move over night due to risk events where I'm not sitting up and watching!
Trade 28
Sep 10 - EUR/USD - Short - 75k units @1.4594 - 31pip SL - 1.51% capital at risk
Closed @ 1.4618 (Sep 11) / -24pips / -£108.65
Trying to pick the top and start of a retracement...stop loss too tight.
Wednesday, 9 September 2009
Message 49
Yesterday was a cr*p trading day! Obviously got stopped out out on the 1.4350 short, accidentally took a long on NZD / USD with my one click trading being the culprit on the train...in retrospect if I'd left the mistake open it would have been very profitable. Lastly, entered an aggressive short for 1% bank on Euro and that obviously lost too...I'll update trades later - lessons learned!
Price has broken upwards again and has broken the Daily upward trendline connecting the three highs on the chart - the daily resistance line was at 1.4510 and the price has not closed on the daily or 4 hourly above this line at present, but as it has reached 1.4550 it looks likely that this resistance trendline has been breached. Therefore I am not looking to go long (i.e. in the direction of the trend) at a pull back at this line with a stop loss below the recent lows at around 1.4360.
Yesterday was a cr*p trading day! Obviously got stopped out out on the 1.4350 short, accidentally took a long on NZD / USD with my one click trading being the culprit on the train...in retrospect if I'd left the mistake open it would have been very profitable. Lastly, entered an aggressive short for 1% bank on Euro and that obviously lost too...I'll update trades later - lessons learned!
Price has broken upwards again and has broken the Daily upward trendline connecting the three highs on the chart - the daily resistance line was at 1.4510 and the price has not closed on the daily or 4 hourly above this line at present, but as it has reached 1.4550 it looks likely that this resistance trendline has been breached. Therefore I am not looking to go long (i.e. in the direction of the trend) at a pull back at this line with a stop loss below the recent lows at around 1.4360.
Tuesday, 8 September 2009
Message 48
NZD reached a low of 0.6098 i.e. 3 pips above my entry and price has since risen 50ish pips grrrr, how annoying! USD is being sold generally across the board this morning and gold has risen over $1000. EUR short still in play but 45 pips in the red at the moment. Tempted to add a shot with tight SL for 1% bank as we are near the 4H trendline resistance...very risky though.
NZD reached a low of 0.6098 i.e. 3 pips above my entry and price has since risen 50ish pips grrrr, how annoying! USD is being sold generally across the board this morning and gold has risen over $1000. EUR short still in play but 45 pips in the red at the moment. Tempted to add a shot with tight SL for 1% bank as we are near the 4H trendline resistance...very risky though.
Monday, 7 September 2009
Message 46
I entered a short on EUR / USD @ 1.4350 as outlined in earlier post. I was also going to enter a short on NZD / USD bit it broke the resistance line so went long instead! However, I closed out the NZD long for a very small profit as I didn't feel comfortable having 10% of bank subject to USD exposure (and in opposite directions) when I wouldn't be able to monitor the price for a major part of the day.
Price has been kept within tight ranges today due to US Bank Holiday.
Trade 21
EUR / USD - Short - 47k units @1.4350 - 100pip hard stop loss - 5% of capital at risk
Trade 22
NZD / USD - Long - 60k units @ 0.6917 - 50pip hard stop loss - 5% of capital at risk
Closed @ 1.6925 / +8pips / +£28.16
Friday, 4 September 2009
Message 43
GBP jumped up above the trendline and has settled above it i.e. the trendline is now broken and my stop loss was hit. Maybe I should have taken the 30pip profit that was on offer overnight...but the trade was taken for the correct reasons.
Trade 19
Closed @ 151.81 / -62 pips / -£122.55
NFP news in 35mins which has the 'potential' to move the market some 100 ish pips either way and very quickly. I have a limit order to sell just below the minor resistance falling trendline at 1.4330 with 100pip SL. Will look to buy if the price reacts down and the 1.4200 support line holds.
GBP jumped up above the trendline and has settled above it i.e. the trendline is now broken and my stop loss was hit. Maybe I should have taken the 30pip profit that was on offer overnight...but the trade was taken for the correct reasons.
Trade 19
Closed @ 151.81 / -62 pips / -£122.55
NFP news in 35mins which has the 'potential' to move the market some 100 ish pips either way and very quickly. I have a limit order to sell just below the minor resistance falling trendline at 1.4330 with 100pip SL. Will look to buy if the price reacts down and the 1.4200 support line holds.
Message 42
My GBP/JPY trade is still in play and I'm letting it play itself out. The Euro has moved up slightly so still hoping to short at or above 1.4300.
The other two potential trades can be seen in the charts below.
I wouldn't take all trades unless I only risked 1% per trade as there is too much correlation with USD / JPY which tend to move together in times of risk aversion. We also have the Non-Farms Jobs data which is potentially one ofte biggest market movers, so I do not want lots of trades open at this time as spikes can easily take out stop losses. However, if th news causes USD strength / weakness across the board then I'll be riding this for a few pips.
My GBP/JPY trade is still in play and I'm letting it play itself out. The Euro has moved up slightly so still hoping to short at or above 1.4300.
The other two potential trades can be seen in the charts below.
I wouldn't take all trades unless I only risked 1% per trade as there is too much correlation with USD / JPY which tend to move together in times of risk aversion. We also have the Non-Farms Jobs data which is potentially one ofte biggest market movers, so I do not want lots of trades open at this time as spikes can easily take out stop losses. However, if th news causes USD strength / weakness across the board then I'll be riding this for a few pips.
Thursday, 3 September 2009
Message 41
Just took a trade on the GBP / JPY...also looking at a potential setup for tomorrow on USD/CAD. I've got limit orders on resistance / support line on EUR / USD.
Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow which has potential to cause significant volatility.
Trade 19
GBP / JPY - Short - 30k units @ 151.19 - 67pip hard SL - 2% of capital at risk
Just took a trade on the GBP / JPY...also looking at a potential setup for tomorrow on USD/CAD. I've got limit orders on resistance / support line on EUR / USD.
Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow which has potential to cause significant volatility.
Trade 19
GBP / JPY - Short - 30k units @ 151.19 - 67pip hard SL - 2% of capital at risk
Message 39
As soon as I exited my trade yesterday the price retraced back to my entry point (i.e. the support line on the chart below). Since then it has slowly worked it's way up to the 1.4300 area...I could have taken another long when the price hit my initial entry point, but with the NFP Unemployment news out soon after I thought it wise to wait for the dust to settle. Unfortunately a trip to the dentist meant I missed the 1H surge upwards.
I've taken 1 trade this week compared to numerous last week, I'm thinking I need to be slightly more aggressive and base my decision on technical reasons and not wait for the ideal price. Though, I' d still rather have a high win % thus taking 5 trades per month is still my preference than 20 if it mean I can catch bigger moves.
At the moment I'm waiting for the Euro to push it's way through the 1.4300 area hopefully up to near the resistance line then I'll be shorting this hopefully all the way down to the previous support line for some big pips.
As soon as I exited my trade yesterday the price retraced back to my entry point (i.e. the support line on the chart below). Since then it has slowly worked it's way up to the 1.4300 area...I could have taken another long when the price hit my initial entry point, but with the NFP Unemployment news out soon after I thought it wise to wait for the dust to settle. Unfortunately a trip to the dentist meant I missed the 1H surge upwards.
I've taken 1 trade this week compared to numerous last week, I'm thinking I need to be slightly more aggressive and base my decision on technical reasons and not wait for the ideal price. Though, I' d still rather have a high win % thus taking 5 trades per month is still my preference than 20 if it mean I can catch bigger moves.
At the moment I'm waiting for the Euro to push it's way through the 1.4300 area hopefully up to near the resistance line then I'll be shorting this hopefully all the way down to the previous support line for some big pips.
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